Case-Schiller Index Points to Stronger Market

Last Tuesday -- for the first time in a long while -- members of the press met the monthly Case-Shiller Index data with enthusiasm. And why shouldn't they? 19 of the 20 measured markets showed a slowing pace of home price decline in April.

Here are some of the headlines about the story:

• Case-Shiller Home Prices Decline Only 18% (Business Week)


• Case-Shiller Less Bad (Seeking Alpha)


• Home Prices In 20 Cities Drop Less Than Expected (Bloomberg)

Now, the headlines feel negative, but they're actually highlighting some key strengths in April's figures. For example, nearly half of the Case-Shiller markets posted gains in April and all but one showed month-over-month improvement.

It's a step in the right direction but doesn't mean that housing has turned around for good.

We have to be careful about how we interpret the Case-Shiller Index because it's an imperfect housing gauge. The most obvious Case-Shiller flaw is that it only measures home values in 20 cities nationwide and they're not even the 20 biggest cities.

Houston, Philadelphia, San Antonio and San Jose are excluded from the report and each ranks among the country's 10 most populous areas. Because of that, I usually don't like to quote the Case-Schiller Index, because we live in Philadelphia, and if our data is not included in the calculations, using it to discuss our market is an inherently flawed conversation.

That said, the report is still paid attention to nationally because the Case-Shiller Index is thought to identify broader housing trends and that helps to shape economic policy, and the idea of a single index is attractive to people writing about housing. And perhaps because this report is a positive report, and I am an inherently optimistic individual, I feel better about using the report to discuss the real estate market.

Not only versus last month but also versus last year, the pace at which home values are falling appears to be getting slower. This is the third straight month Case-Shiller has reported as such.

Now, three months makes a trend, but the data has to stay strong through the summer months to mark a bona fide turnaround. If the Case-Shiller Index shows strength for May and June, it could be the signal for which the markets have been waiting.

Can You Save the Planet When You Mow Your Lawn?

Motorized garden tools come in two varieties -- gas-powered and electric-powered.

If you take a close look, however, you'll notice that professional landscapers and gardening experts almost always choose the gas-powered types. This is because gas-powered garden tools both outperform and outlast their electric counterparts.

On the downside, they're an environmental nightmare.

According to the California Air Resources Board, a typical 5-horsepower, gasoline-powered lawnmower produces more pollution in 60 minutes of operation than a Toyota Prius produces in 800 miles of driving.

The environmental pollution created by lawn care products is one of the reasons why the Eco Trimmer by Lehr is getting such good buzz. As the first propane-powered garden tool, the Eco Trimmer combines the lawn care power of a gas-powered tool with the environmental accountability of an electric one.

The propane-powered tool emits 96 percent fewer carcinogens than a gas-powered tool and is completely non-toxic to ground and soil. Its performance is highly-rated, too.

The Eco Trimmer sells for about $200 on Amazon.com and is available in most major hardware stores. You can read more about the product and its environmental impact at the official Lehr website.

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Can You Buy More House Because of Higher Unemployment?

Last week's jobs report is the latest data point to drag down rates for today's home buyers and would-be refinancers.

As reported by the government, the national Unemployment Rate rose to 9.5 percent in June -- a 25-year high.

As the percentage of out-of-work Americans grows, households have less disposable income to pump back into the economy.

And so, because consumer spending accounts for two-third of the economy, the growing ranks of the unemployed are forcing markets to change expectations about when the U.S. economy will reach its full recovery.

Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates. The perceived absence of inflation, therefore, can be its friend.

With fewer working Americans, we can expect slower economic growth plus a smaller probability for inflation over the medium-term. This is why mortgage rates are lower of late, off by as much as a half-percent from the peak.

Home affordability is up. And in a market like Philadelphia where prices have remained typically affordable, that may account for the additional activity we are seeing this summer as home buyers work towards attaining future security for their families through home ownership.

So if affordability is up, should you be looking to see what might be in your best interest?

Keep Your Grill Gassed up!

If you've ever been grilling for friends or family and emptied your gas tank mid-burger, you'll appreciate the GasWatch Propane Level Indicator and Safety Gauge.

For less than $20, the fits-most-grills appliance connects between the gas tank and the regulator, clearly displaying the propane left until a refill is needed.

When the needle falls to red, grillers can expect another 15 minutes of cooking until total flame out. The method is reportedly more reliable than the magnetic tank gauge method that involves pouring hot water down the side of the tank and reading a temperature-sensitive ink spot.

Additionally, if the GasWatch gauge senses a leak, it shuts down the flow of propane to keep the grill from catching fire.

July 4th is behind us, but there's lots of grilling left in the season. Pick up a GasWatch propane gauge at a local Home Depot or hardware store, or buy one online at Amazon.com.

Video: Getting Hard Water Stains Out of the Shower

Water high in mineral content -- specifically calcium and magnesium -- is more commonly known as "hard water".

There's no negative link between hard water and human health, but hard water has been known to mess with a homeowner's penchant for cleanliness.  Over time, mineral deposits can collect and "stain" anywhere that there's running water.

In the home, hard water stains are most commonly found in bathrooms.

In this 2-minute video from Rachel Yatuzis, we see the Hard Water Stain Remedy in action.  It doesn't take much time, or even much effort.  Removing the stains can be as simple as mixing lemon juice, vinegar, and baking soda.

A Simple Explanation of the Federal Reserve Staement of Last Week

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged last week on June 24th within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

The Fed also reiterated its plan to support the mortgage market to the tune of $1.5 trillion.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy is not slowing with the same speed versus just two months ago and that financial markets, in general, are improving.

These are two signs that the country may be emerging from recession, if it hasn't already. ANd that means good news for the real estate market which usually leads the way into and out of economic times like these.

The news isn't all good, however. The Fed made a point to highlight the potential hazards the nations faces on its path to economic recovery:

• The prices of energy and commodities have been rising
  
  
• Job losses are still mounting nationally
  
  
• Businesses are reducing capital expenditures
  

Also in its statement, the Fed acknowledged a plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent "for an extended period" and a re-commitment to the U.S. Treasury and Mortgage Bond markets.

Market reaction to the Fed's press release has been muted.

With no new stimulus and no new "tools" to spur the economy unveiled, Wall Street is business as usual. Mortgage rates are unchanged post-FOMC today.

So it would seem when all is said and done, that even if we are coming out of the toughest times, there will still be plaenty of challenges to meet us on the way out.

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is August 11-12, 2009.

Philadelphia Foreclosures and the Pareto Principal

The Pareto Principle is a statistical concept most commonly known as the 80/20 Rule, and is commonly applied in a variety of situations. for example "20% of the salesmen make 80% of the sales" or put another way "20% of your efforts generate 0% of your results"

Iin other words 80 percent of the effects come from 20 of the causes according to this principal.

Apparently, the 80/20 Rule applies to foreclosures, too -- at least according to data compiled by foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.

Based on data from May, 11 states accounted for 80% of the country's foreclosure activity. The remaining 20% was spread across the 39 others.

That's 80/20 almost to the tee.

The disparity goes deeper that that, though. The top three states in RealtyTrac's list -- California, Florida, Nevada -- were home to half of May's foreclosure-related actions.

Clearly, foreclosures are concentrated in certain geographies, generally where the spike in the real estate market was the greatest. Put another way, the places with the greatest increases, saw the greatest decreases in price, and were subject to the greatest abuses in mortgage lending. As a result these states are seeing the largest amount of foreclosures

But, even in Pennsylvania,where we are not suffering from as difficult a market as other places in the country, foreclosures still impact us. This is because mortgage lenders are often national companies, lending in all 50 states.

When home loans go bad -- in any state -- lenders respond by increasing downpayment requirements and by adding new borrowing hurdles. If you've applied for a mortgage in the last 18 months, you've experienced this phenomenon personally.

On the other side, if you're a home buyer in a foreclosure-heavy state, you're finding terrific value versus several years ago. It's one reason why Existing Home Sales in the West Region are up by 19 percent from last year, for example.